Michail Fragkias, assistant professor in the Department of Economics, published a paper in the Sustainability in an Urbanizing Planet Special Feature of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The paper is titled “Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.” Co-authors are Burak Güneralp (lead), Yuyu Zhou, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Mukesh Gupta, Sha Yu, Pralit L. Patel, Xiaoma Li, and Karen C. Seto.
Significance
Urban density significantly impacts urban energy use and the quality of life of urban residents. Here, we provide a global-scale analysis of future urban densities and associated energy use in the built environment under different urbanization scenarios. The relative importance of urban density and energy-efficient technologies varies geographically. In developing regions, urban density tends to be the more critical factor in building energy use. Large-scale retrofitting of building stock later rather than sooner results in more energy savings by the middle of the century. Reducing building energy use, improving the local environment, and mitigating climate change can be achieved through systemic efforts that take potential co-benefits and trade-offs of both higher urban density and building energy efficiency into account.