Demographic Crises

Recurrences of the Plague

It would be nearly impossible, as well as tedious and not especially instructive, to list all outbreaks of the plague after 1350. In what follows, you should remember that this is a listing of large-scale outbreaks and that localized outbreaks were equally or even more frequent. I give the list below merely as another way to make vivid the impact of the Black Death.

Nota bene: The sources I had to hand when I wrote this concentrated mainly on England and secondarily on Italy. They said almost nothing about France, Germany or Iberia. If you know of figures and/or sources, please contact me and I'll add to this table. I'm mainly interested in general plagues, but information on specific locations is welcome too. I might consider a separate table for plagues in specific communities.

Some plagues were worse than others, of course. The best information I have comes from England. The plague of 1438-39 was accompanied by a famine and the death rate was around 12%. The plague of 1471 was 10% to 15%. The plague of 1479-80 was around 20%, the worst since the secunda pestis.

Besides the Black Death (whatever it was!), other diseases contributed to the overall death-rate. Especially in the 15th century (and beyond), the "red plague" (smallpox) was a significant factor. Among chronic diseases, most important were "ague" (malaria), dysentery, and "bloody flux" (intestinal diarrhea). Chroniclers often spoke merely of a "pest" without being specific, and we can only know of overall deaths without knowing that they were all due to this or that disease.

In general, the population of Europe in 1430 was 50% to 75% less than it had been in 1290. While some areas recovered their pre-Plague population as early as the later 15th century, Europe in general did not until the mid-16th century, and some areas even later. Some—the abandoned villages—never recovered at all.

Comments and questions

Dr. E.L. Skip Knox
Boise State University