Demographic Crises
The Origins of the Black Death
There is a fair amount of controversy over exactly what the disease was that attacked populations from China to Europe in the 1300s. The traditional answer is bubonic plague, but other causes have been suggested because the vector of the disease doesn't seem to match how the disease behaves in modern times. As interesting as the debate is, it's more a medical and forensic question and I'm more interested here in the course and effects of the plague. There are references in the bibliography for this essay that address the debate, if you're interested.
The Black Death erupted in the Gobi Desert in the late 1320s. No one really knows why. The plague bacillus was alive and active long before that—we know of two previous outbreaks, one in the 3rd century and one in the 6th century. The disease had lain relatively dormant in the succeeding centuries. We know that the climate of Earth began to cool in the 14th century, and perhaps this so-called little Ice Age had something to do with it.
Whatever the reason, we know that the outbreak began there in the Gobi Desert and spread outward. While it did go west, it spread in every direction, and the Asian nations suffered as cruelly as anywhere. In China, for example, the population dropped from around 125 million to 90 million over the course of the 14thc. Given that populations normally grow, the fact that there was actually dramatic decline (almost 30%) is an indication of the extent of the catastrophe.